After examining the MRIS data of McLean single family homes sold between January 1 and August 31 in 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, two things jump out.  The first is that the percentage of homes listed at $1 million or more when they sold versus the total sold has steadily declined from 56% in 2006 to just 41% in the last eight months.  The second is that the lowest sales price for a single family home has also dropped significantly from $585,000 in 2006 to $416,900 in 2009.

Neither of these statistics are unexpected given the overall real estate market in the past 2 years.  While the total number of homes sold has declined somewhat since 2006, what most people are looking for these days are the entry level price points regardless of what area they want to live.  In McLean, that means the $550,000 to $850,000 market is very hot right now with some houses receiving multiple contracts within the first few days on the market.  Homes priced over a $1 million are moving but not nearly as quickly. 

As inventory in the lower price points get bought up, it is likely than we will see an uptick in McLean home prices, although economists do not anticipate returning to the boom days we experienced earlier in this decade.  They point to a more traditional home appreciation rate.

Here is the data.

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